Canada mortgage
rate forecast
As of October 14, 2026, the Government of Canada 5-year benchmark bond yield is 3.55% and the Bank of Canada's policy rate is 2.25%, with prime at 4.45%. Fixed mortgage rates follow the bond yield, not the policy rate. That is why fixed rates can move in a week when the Bank of Canada has done nothing at all.
This page reads those figures straight from the Bank of Canada every hour and shows what lenders are charging over them today. It does not predict a number for a future date, because nobody can do that honestly.
- 5-year GoC bond yield
- 3.55%
- Prime rate
- 4.45%
- Policy rate
- 2.25%
-0.10 over 30 trading days
Sets 5-year fixed rates.
Variable rates are quoted as a discount off prime.
The Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate.
What lenders charge over the bond
A lender funding a 5-year fixed mortgage borrows in the bond market and lends to you at a markup. That markup is the spread, and it is where the negotiation actually happens. The yield is the same for everyone. The spread is not.
Today the 5-year Government of Canada bond yields 3.55%. Our posted insured 5-year fixed is 4.05%. That is a spread of 0.50 points. When you see a rate quoted elsewhere, subtract 3.55% from it and you will know exactly what that lender is charging you for the privilege.
Today's arithmetic
- 5-year bond yield
- 3.55%
- Our 5-year fixed
- 4.05%
- Spread
- 0.50 pts
- Variable
- 3.29%prime − 1.16
The forecast matters less than your renewal date
You can hold a rate well before your maturity date. Whether that is worth doing depends on your balance, your date and the gap to today's rates. We will run it against your actual numbers and tell you plainly if holding beats waiting.
What banks actually charged
Comparison sites quote advertised rates. The Bank of Canada publishes something better: the average rate chartered banks actually wrote, drawn from their own regulatory filings. It is the difference between a sticker price and a receipt.
| 5-year fixed | Chartered bank average | Our posted rate | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Uninsured | 4.49% | 4.07% | 0.42 pts lower |
| Insured | 4.05% | 4.05% | level |
Chartered bank averages are the Bank of Canada's most recent published reading, dated July 1, 2026. That series reports monthly and lags the market by roughly a quarter, so read it as context rather than as today's pricing. Our own rates are current as of 2026-10-05. We publish the insured row even where it shows no advantage, because a comparison that only ever flatters us would not be worth reading.
Where the yield has been
Direction only means something with a window attached, so here are two.
Past 30 trading days
-0.10
Yield is lower than a month ago.
Past 90 trading days
+0.36
Yield is higher than a quarter ago.
Range in this window
2.99% – 3.69%
Low and high across the trailing period.
A 30-day move and a 90-day move can point in opposite directions, and frequently do. That is precisely why a single arrow labelled “rates are falling” is worth nothing without the period it covers.
Straight answers
- Will mortgage rates go down in Canada?
- Fixed mortgage rates track the Government of Canada 5-year bond yield, which sits at 3.55% as of October 14, 2026. It has moved -0.10 points over the last 30 trading days and +0.36 over 90. Variable rates move only when the Bank of Canada changes its policy rate, currently 2.25%. Anyone quoting you a precise future rate is guessing.
- Why are fixed rates rising when the Bank of Canada has not moved?
- Because fixed rates are not set by the Bank of Canada. Lenders fund 5-year fixed mortgages in the bond market, so those rates follow the 5-year Government of Canada yield, currently 3.55%. The policy rate at 2.25% drives prime, and therefore variable rates. The two can move in opposite directions for months.
- How do bond yields set fixed mortgage rates?
- A lender writing a 5-year fixed mortgage borrows at roughly the 5-year Government of Canada yield and lends to you at a markup covering risk, costs and profit. That markup is the spread. Today the yield is 3.55% and our posted insured 5-year fixed is 4.05%, a spread of 0.50 points. Subtract the yield from any quoted rate and you see what that lender charges.
- Should I lock in my mortgage rate now?
- A rate hold costs nothing and protects you for up to 120 days with most lenders. If yields fall before you sign, you take the lower rate; if they rise, you keep the held one. The asymmetry favours holding. The real question is not whether to hold but whether your renewal or closing date is close enough for a hold to reach it.
- Fixed or variable in 2026?
- Variable is priced off prime, currently 4.45%, with discounts around 1.16 points below it. Variable wins if the Bank of Canada keeps cutting and loses if it holds or hikes. Fixed removes the question for five years. Choose on how much payment movement your budget can absorb, not on a forecast.
- How much will my payment go up when I renew?
- It depends on the gap between the rate you signed at and the rate available on your renewal date, applied to your remaining balance over your remaining amortisation. A borrower who signed near the bottom of the cycle can see a material increase. The only way to know your number is to run it against your actual balance and date.
- What rate are Canadian banks actually charging?
- The Bank of Canada publishes the rates chartered banks actually booked, not advertised. In the most recent reading, dated July 1, 2026, the average uninsured mortgage of 5 years or more was 4.49% and the insured equivalent was 4.05%. That series publishes monthly and lags by about a quarter, so treat it as context rather than today's market.
- When is the next Bank of Canada rate announcement?
- The Bank publishes its policy interest rate announcement schedule a year in advance. Rather than repeat dates that go stale, we link the Bank’s own schedule in the sources section at the foot of this page. Variable rates can only change after one of those announcements; fixed rates can change any day the bond market moves.
- Can I hold a rate while I decide?
- Yes. Most lenders will hold an approved rate for 90 to 120 days at no cost and with no obligation to proceed. If rates improve before you sign, a broker can usually re-submit at the lower rate. Holding early costs nothing and removes the risk of deciding under deadline pressure.
- Is this page a forecast of a specific future rate?
- No. It reports the live Government of Canada bond yield, prime and the policy rate, and shows what lenders are charging over them today. The bond market is the best available leading indicator for fixed rates, but it is not a prediction, and we do not publish target numbers for future dates that nobody can substantiate.
- How often is this page updated?
- The bond yield, prime and policy rate are read directly from the Bank of Canada and refresh hourly; the reading shown is from October 14, 2026. Posted mortgage rates come from our own rate sheet, last revised 2026-10-05. Every figure on this page carries the date it belongs to.
Get the number that applies to you
The yield above is the same for everyone. Your rate is not. It depends on your down payment, your income, your credit and whether the mortgage is insured. Tell us the situation and we will come back with the real figure.
- Access to 50+ lenders, including options the banks do not quote.
- A rate hold costs nothing and protects you if yields move against you.
- Prefer to run it yourself first? The qualifier shows whether the ratios pass.
What's my actual rate?
Tell us your situation and renewal date. We'll send the real number, not a teaser.
Sources and method
The 5-year benchmark bond yield, prime rate and target for the overnight rate are read directly from the Bank of Canada Valet API . The reading shown is dated October 14, 2026 and refreshes hourly. Posted mortgage rates are our own rate sheet, last revised 2026-10-05. The spread is calculated from those two figures, not estimated.
Nothing here is a forecast of a specific future rate, and no one can give you one honestly. The bond market is a leading indicator for fixed rates, not a guarantee. Rates quoted are the lowest available to qualified borrowers and are not an offer of credit. Your rate depends on a full application, lender underwriting and credit review.
Written by Mudit Chhura, Mortgage Agent Level 2 (M25003057), IndiBrick, through Pineapple Financial Inc., Brokerage Licence 12830. See our editorial policy for how we source and review market data.